Week 1 fantasy football matchup analysis - NFL2K10 - Part 1

With the NFL season quickly approaching and the creation of The M Section blog, I wanted to take the opportunity to put my fantasy football reputation on the line and offer week 1 picks and analysis in our 12-team league. This is a PPR league in which we start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 team defense.

DJ vs. ML

DJ’s projected starting lineup*:

QB – Kevin Kolb, Phi (GB)

RB – DeAngelo Williams, Car (@NYG), Beanie Wells, Ari (@STL)

WR – Andre Johnson, Hou (Ind), Hakeem Nicks, NYG (Car), Malcolm Floyd, SD (@KC)

TE – Antonio Gates, SD (@KC)

Flex – Thomas Jones, KC (SD)

K – Matt Prater, Den (@Jac)

Def – Philadelphia (GB)

ML’s projected starting lineup*:

QB – Tom Brady, NE (Cin)

RB – Adrian Peterson, Min (@NO), Ryan Grant, GB (@Phi)

WR – Wes Welker, NE (Cin), Hines Ward, Pit (Atl), Terrell Owens, Cin (@NE)

TE – Heath Miller, Pit (Atl)

Flex – LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ (Bal)

K – Adam Vinatieri, Ind (@Hou)

Def – Pittsburgh (Atl)

*opponents in parentheses

Analysis:

ML’s return to the league after a 2-year absence should begin with a victory. Both teams have weapons and both have questions marks. There are just too many question marks on DJ’s roster – How will Kolb perform in his first game as the no. 1 QB in Philadelphia? How will the QB situation in Arizona, the loss of Nehemia Broughton and Tim Hightower’s touches and effectiveness in the passing game affect Beanie Wells’ output? Will Thomas Jones put up fantasy-relevant numbers behind Jamaal Charles? Will Hakeem Nicks ascend to the next level? Can Malcolm Floyd produce like a true no. 1 WR in San Diego? The roster has potential, but to expect most of these things to work out in DJ’s favor right away and result in a week 1 win against a team with Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Ryan Grant, Wes Welker and Hines Ward would be optimistic at best. Pick: ML

WC vs. TS

WC’s projected starting lineup*:

QB – Aaron Rodgers, GB (@Phi)

RB – Jamaal Charles, KC (SD), Felix Jones, Dal (@Wash)

WR – Calvin Johnson, Det (@Chi), Anquan Boldin, Bal (@NYJ), Devin Aromashodu, Chi (Det)

TE – Jason Witten, Dal (@Wash)

Flex – Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak (@Ten)

K – Rob Bironas, Ten (Oak)

Def – Minnesota (@NO)

TS’s projected starting lineup*:

QB – Phillip Rivers, SD (@KC)

RB – Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac (Den), Pierre Thomas, NO (Minn)

WR – Brandon Marshall, Mia (@Buf), Santana Moss, Wash (Dal), TJ Houshmandzadeh, Sea (SF)

TE – John Carlson, Sea (SF)

Flex – Ronnie Brown, Mia (@Buf)

K – Mason Crosby, GB (@Phi)

Def – San Francisco (@Sea)

*opponents in parentheses

Analysis:

Heyward-Bey on a starting fantasy roster is questionable, I don’t like any defense that’s facing the Saints and I’m not sold on Jones. He’s an injury risk and his touches will continue to be somewhat limited in the Cowboys’ crowded and talented backfield. That said, he's still a dynamic talent. Rodgers and Johnson should be automatic for big numbers. Witten and Charles are at least reasonably safe bets to put up decent totals, as well. Conversely, there are no week 1 automatics on TS’s team. As talented as the trio of Rivers, Jones-Drew and Marshall is, it’s difficult to confidently say any of them will have a huge game. Jones-Drew has been dealing with a knee injury, Rivers won’t have Vincent Jackson and Marshall is on a new team – decent numbers can be expected, but numbers on par with their yearly averages this early in the season probably can’t. Thomas and Brown could change the face of this matchup if they have solid games, but I don’t think they’ll have enough. Santana Moss has played well against the Cowboys in the past, but the Redskins offense isn't exactly clicking on all cylinders heading into its opening game. Moss could be limited. Seattle's Houshmandzadeh and Carlson could struggle this week, if not beyond. Pick: WC

- BG