Week 1 fantasy football matchup analysis - NFL2K10 - Part 3

The highly anticipated part 3 of the week 1 analysis is below. The defending champ, two other former champions and a newcomer to the league are included. We’re two days away from the Vikings-Saints tilt, an integral game for the first of the two matchups we'll review in this segment.

MS vs. JL

MS’s projected starting lineup*:

QB – Brett Favre, Min (@NO)

RB – Ray Rice, Bal (@NYJ), Cedric Benson, Cin (@NE)

WR – Roddy White, Atl (@Pit), Lee Evans, Buf (Mia), Greg Camarillo, Min (@NO)

TE – Jermichael Finley, GB (@Phi)

Flex – Carnell Williams, Tam (Cle)

K – Sebastian Janikowski, Oak (@Ten)

Def – New York Giants (Car)

JL’s projected starting lineup*:

QB – Drew Brees, NO (Min)

RB – Joseph Addai, Ind (@Hou), Marion Barber, Dal (@Wash)

WR – Reggie Wayne, Ind (@Hou), Donald Driver, GB (@Phi), Austin Collie, Ind (@Hou)

TE – Dallas Clark, Ind (@Hou)

Flex – Chris Chambers, KC (SD)

K – Jeff Reed, Pit (Atl)

Def – New York Jets (Bal)

*opponents in parentheses

Analysis:

The marquee matchup here is at QB, where Favre and Brees will square off Thursday in a rematch of January’s NFC championship game. Slight advantage to JL with Brees. Favre will be working without his top receiver, Sidney Rice, and Chester Taylor (now with Chicago), who was a very good situational back and caught 44 passes in 2009. As good as Favre is, these are two valuable offensive pieces he won’t be able to utilize. We won’t know the full impact until the games start, but I can’t imagine Minnesota’s passing game will be quite as sharp as it was last season. At running back, advantage MS. Rice is a stud. Look for him to contribute significantly even against the Jets’ stout defense. Benson should be solid, too. JL’s running backs are both potential busts. They have no upside and though they play on very good offenses, neither are top three go-to options on their respective teams. WR, advantage JL. Wayne, Driver and Collie is a better trio than White, Evans and Camarillo or anyone else MS can bring off the bench. Push at tight end. Finley should be awesome this season. I like him against the Eagles. Clark had two big games against the Texans in 2009. He is the most likely of the Colts’ offensive players to have a big game this weekend, speaking of which.... JL has four players from the Colts and although Peyton Manning can spread the wealth, putting this many fantasy eggs in one basket is a tricky proposition. All things considered, this is a close one to call. MS could have a big advantage at RB. Because of that and also because I’m not convinced all of JL’s Colts will produce this week, I have to go with Favre and Co. Pick: MS

Glacc vs. KF

Glacc’s projected starting lineup*:

QB – Peyton Manning, Ind (@Hou)

RB – Steven Jackson, StL (Ari), Reggie Bush, NO (Min)

WR – Marques Colston, NO (Min), Percy Harvin, Min (@NO), Dez Bryant, Dal (@Wash)

TE – Brent Celek, Phi (GB)

Flex – Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (Car)

K – David Akers, Phi (GB)

Def – Dallas (@Wash)

KF’s projected starting lineup*:

QB – Eli Manning, NYG (Car)

RB – Ryan Mathews, SD (@KC), Rashard Mendenhall, Pit (Atl)

WR – Steve Smith, Car (@NYG), Mike Sims-Walker, Jac (Den), Pierre Garcon, Ind (@Hou)

TE – Kellen Winslow, Tam (Cle)

Flex – Jahvid Best, Det (@Chi)

K – Garrett Hartley, NO (Min)

Def – Green Bay (@Phi)

*opponents in parentheses

Analysis:

I enter this season having won in 2009 and I like my team. I just don’t love it, at least not yet. It’s deep and a repeat is not out of the question, but there are definitely some things that remain to be seen. Peyton Manning, Jackson, Colston, Harvin and Celek should be a strong foundation. I’m hopeful that Bush, Bryant and Bradshaw will all contribute in week 1, but each is far from a certainty. Bush is starting because I’m leery about using Knowshon Moreno, who’s been dealing with a hamstring injury. I’m leaning toward starting Bryant as my WR3, but something tells me I should go with one of the two Mike Williams instead. Bryant will be good. Will he be good in week 1? I don’t know, but I think he’ll take a few weeks to get into a rhythm and to the point where he can be counted on for solid production week in, week out. The same can probably be said about each Mike Williams, which is a dilemma that I’ll have to sort out by this weekend. KF is one of two new-comers to the league and he has a good team. Eli Manning is not an elite fantasy QB like his brother, but you could do a lot worse. He’s a Super Bowl winning QB in the prime of his career on a well-coached team with weapons at wide receiver. Not bad. In a year when RB depth seems to be at an all-time low, KF has three who could end up being in the top dozen in fantasy scoring at their positions. However, two of them, Mathews and Best, are rookies so expectations should remain realistic. Isaac Redman was named the Steelers’ short-yardage back, which hurts Mendenhall’s value a little, but I just don’t see it having a major impact on his overall production. Steve Smith (Carolina), Sims-Walker and Garcon might be the most underrated wide receiver trio in our league. Kellen Winslow is capable of being in the top handful of tight ends every week. It’s hard to find a weakness on this team. I won’t predict the winner of this one since it’s my matchup, but I welcome everyone else’s feedback.

-BG